War in Iran has already produced emissions equivalent to a year of Iceland’s carbon output

New analysis involving researchers from Queen Mary University of London, Lancaster University and the Climate and Community Institute estimates that the first 14 days of the Iran war generated more than 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e).

The findings suggest the conflict has already produced emissions greater than Iceland’s total annual carbon output, highlighting the often-overlooked environmental consequences of modern warfare.

While the analysis provides an early snapshot of emissions, the authors note that total climate impacts are likely to increase significantly as the conflict continues.

The research examines direct and indirect emissions generated between 28 February and 14 March 2026, including those from military operations, destruction of infrastructure, and damage to fuel and oil facilities.

The estimates draw on established methodologies previously used to assess emissions from conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, including previous work published in One Earth.

The study estimates that emissions during this period are equivalent to the annual output of around 1.1 million petrol cars, with associated climate damages exceeding $1.3 billion.

The environmental cost of conflict

Dr Benjamin Neimark, Reader in International Political Economy at Queen Mary University of London, said:

“Emissions from armed conflict remain largely invisible in global climate policy. They are rarely counted, rarely reported and rarely discussed.

Without proper accounting, we are underestimating the true drivers of climate change and missing a critical part of the picture.”

Dr Fred Otu-Larbi of Lancaster University added:

“What this analysis shows is that alongside the human costs of conflict, the environmental cost of war is not a distant or secondary issue. It is immediate, measurable and on a scale comparable to the annual emissions of entire countries.”

A growing global impact

Researchers warn that emissions are likely to rise significantly if the conflict continues. Key drivers include increased production of weapons and military equipment, fires and leaks from damaged oil infrastructure, and expanded military involvement from additional countries.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route, has also intensified disruption to oil and gas supply chains, with wider environmental implications.

Breaking down the emissions

The analysis identifies several major sources of emissions during the first two weeks of conflict:

• Destruction of homes and infrastructure: 2.4 million tCO₂e
• Fuel use in military operations: 529,000 tCO₂e
• Burning and destruction of oil: 1.88 million tCO₂e
• Military equipment losses: 172,000 tCO₂e
• Missiles and drones: 55,000 tCO₂e

About the analysis

This analysis is not peer reviewed and presents early estimates based on previously established calculation methods.

The methodology builds on previous research by the authors, including a study published in One Earth examining the carbon emissions of the Israel–Gaza conflict, which developed a framework for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from armed conflict using direct, indirect and supply chain emissions.